Tuesday 14 February 2017

After a century of ups and downs, are Sino-US relations about to reset?

Relations between the two nations go back to 1911 just after the collapse of the Qing Dynasty. 

An early start
The pre- People's Republic of China (PRC) government, known as the ROC and run by the Nationalists (KMT) was seen as run by anti-communists. The key western ally of the KMT, was seen as having brought about the end of the main enemy, Japan. The PRC was viewed by the nato powers as forming a second  front in the Cold War. The PRC was seen as a target for undermining, 20 years following its founding in 1949. 

The beginning of peaceful relations
Motivated towards peaceful co-existence, both got together to build a mutually beneficial partnership when Mao  and Nixon shook hands. Part of the US president's aim was to unease the USSR  concurrently. He may have been successful in making Leonid Brezhnev  take a few steps backward. 
At the same time, both sides gained from  the arrangements made, economically and developmentally. Part of the PRC's aim was to have itself recognized as the only China, and have the KMT in Taiwan no longer propped up by the USA. This has been a continual demand by the PRC of the USA. 

Discussions/ tensions since Mao
While Reagan found a good audience with the likes of Zhao Ziyang (who favoured dialogue with the students in 1989), the PRC did not react well to American criticisms of its human rights. Movies such as "7 Years in Tibet" led to charges by the PRC of western nations interfering and behaving like "imperialists". 
In the 90s, such tensions boiled over into disagreements over trade. In that decade, the US frequently accused the PRC of manipulating its currency. 
Further diplomatic tensions came about through frequent near misses between both nations air forces. Both would accuse each other in their own way. Post Gorbachev, the PRC was labelled with the same words previously reserved for the USSR, and the domestic Chinese media was filled with anti-US propaganda. The accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 2008 by NATO provoked riots in the PRC. 
Cooler heads gradually took over, such as here in a warm moment between Zhu Rhongji and Bill Clinton. They were able to discuss their differences calmly, with the aim of common peace.

Hope for the future
So, despite a few statements by both sides of late, including the People's Daily accusing President Trump of "playing with fire" when it comes to pressure applied on Beijing over island building in the South China Sea, and pressure brought foward to change trade relations,      there have been recent discussions between Trump and the PRC president, Xi Jinping. Agreeing to recognize the "One China" principle after Beijing was upset by hearing about the head of the KMT/ ROC president congratulating Trump personally on winning the presidency, Trade and diplomacy is once more in the offing. The potential is certainly there for good relations to resume to the benefit of both, but as long as both are listening to each other respectfully, as has been recently happening, there could be a resumption of good relations that will be the best to both the PRC and the USA. The ingredients are there for optimism, despite the challenging relationship of the past few decades.

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